Here’s to BOA getting it wrong in 2023

Its ok if BOA’s top strategist got 2023 wrong. But its not ok if she tries to fool people into thinking that she was right.

Three days back, Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity Strategy and head of U.S. Quantitative Strategy at BofA Global Research, took a victory lap on linkedikn.

She pasted an S&P 500 chart and wrote “Here’s to getting it right in 2023 (at least for today morning!)”.

But here’s the problem, 2023 blindsided BOA’s top quant.

Coming into this year, Savita didn’t like stocks. Through most of 1h 2023, she warned on $200 in S&P 500 earnings, a first-half S&P 500 plunge towards 3,000, and a year-end close at 4,000.

But after the market kept ripping, she gave up.

This chart plots BOA’s 2023 year-end target and the S&P 500. Both lines show month-end values. In May, after the S&P 500 already jumped to 4,200, Savita upped her 4,000 target to 4,300. Then in September @ S&P 4,300, she raised another 300 points to 4,600.

These facts show that Subramanian didn’t get 2023 right, she merely chased this year’s market.

And for the record, these articles detail Savita’s target increases:

to 4,300: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bank-america-lifts-end-p-193947151.html

to 4,600: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bank-america-strategists-raise-p-141402894.html

All of this shows that Subramanian’s “Here’s to getting it right in 2023” linkedin comment:

1) Isn’t true.

2) It misleads people into thinking that Savita’s work is better than it is.

Zero accountability

Wall Street research departments let their strategists recommend thousands of ideas without tracking a single recommendation.

So for your good, fact-check strategist comments.

And if you use BOA’s research to figure out what to invest in, make sure you know their analysts track records.

Good luck.

jim